Introduction.

Trade the direction you actually know, not the precision you don't. RAVA is a scalar prediction market for financial benchmarks: it settles on a number, and the payout scales with exactly where it lands, so being almost right pays almost fully. Four rules make it what it is: one official market per benchmark, floor and cap fixed by a published rule before trading opens, settlement no one can dispute, and anyone can mint the pair for a dollar.

The first market.

How high does credit stress land? Two shares take opposite sides: stress (sHY) pays more the higher the official number finishes, calm (cHY) pays the rest. Together they redeem for $1, locked in escrow until an independent administrator's published number divides it. No committee, no vote, no counterparty but the other side of the bet.

Two numbers decide your trade.

Where you bought, and where it lands. Buy sHY at 12¢ and a landing 25% up the range pays $0.25, about double. The same landing after buying at 40¢ loses. Being half right pays half. There is no cliff where a near miss pays nothing.

What is a scalar prediction market?

A scalar prediction market settles on a number, not on a yes or no outcome. The payout scales with where the number lands, so being almost right pays almost fully. A binary market pays nothing for a near miss. A scalar market pays in proportion.

How is RAVA different from other prediction markets?

Most prediction markets ask you to pick an exact bucket and pay zero when you miss by one. RAVA lists one official market per benchmark, with a floor and cap fixed by a published rule before trading opens, and the payout slides with where the number finishes.

What does RAVA settle on?

Settlement reads an independent administrator's published number for the benchmark. No committee votes and nothing is interpreted. At the end of each window the market reads that number and divides every escrowed dollar between the two sides.

Can you lose more than you paid?

A position cannot lose more than it cost to buy. Each pair is fully collateralized by a dollar held in escrow, and at settlement the two shares divide that dollar. There is no margin and no liquidation.

What can you trade on RAVA?

The first market is on credit stress in US high yield. Two shares take opposite sides: sHY pays more the higher the official number finishes, and cHY pays the rest. A new window opens every March and September.

Go deeper.

Review status.

This is a working demo. Prices are illustrative. No capital moves.

Why a market on a number is built differently from a yes or no market is covered in Learn.