Introduction.

Trade the direction you actually know, not the precision you don't. RAVA is a scalar prediction market for financial benchmarks: it settles on a number, and the payout scales with exactly where it lands, so being almost right pays almost fully. Four rules make it what it is: one official market per benchmark, floor and cap fixed by a published rule before trading opens, settlement no one can dispute, and anyone can mint the pair for a dollar.

The first market.

How high does credit stress land? Two shares take opposite sides: stress (sHY) pays more the higher the official number finishes, calm (cHY) pays the rest. Together they redeem for $1, locked in escrow until an independent administrator's published number divides it. No committee, no vote, no counterparty but the other side of the bet.

Two numbers decide your trade.

Where you bought, and where it lands. Buy sHY at 12¢ and a landing 25% up the range pays $0.25, about double. The same landing after buying at 40¢ loses. Being half right pays half. There is no cliff where a near miss pays nothing.

Go deeper.

Review status.

This is a working demo. Prices are illustrative. No capital moves.